While the American solar market hasn’t been booming on all fronts, 2013 has shaped up to be fairly good year, according to a new report.

As the year draws to a close, analysts at the Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA) project for the first time in more than over a decade that U.S. total installed solar capacity for 2013 will eclipse Germany’s tally for the year. And with more than 10 GW of installed solar capacity to date — along with an estimate of more than 400,000 solar projects operating in the country by year’s end — American installation growth will have increased by 27 percent compared to last year, according to the SEIA’s Solar Market Insight report for the third quarter of 2013.

Residential market, PV installations continue to boom

The home solar market was a clear winner, with the segment experiencing “the most rapid growth of any segment in the U.S. solar market,” the report said.

Twenty of the 28 states monitored by SEIA experienced residential installation growth in Q3 2013, with Arizona and California as standouts. Installations in New Jersey and Hawaii slowed over the same time period.

Residential PV installations experienced a year-over-year growth rate of 49 percent by Q3′s end. They’re estimated to inch up to 52 percent when the year closes, according to the report.

PV installations of all types were also standouts. With an installed capacity of 930 MW in the third quarter, the total installation capacity for PV systems weighed in as the “second-largest quarter in the history of the U.S. market and the largest quarter ever for residential PV installations,” the report said. Total growth measured 35 percent over the same quarter last year.

Average system sizes of residential projects have grown as well, with an average capacity of 6 kW, according to the report.

Utility market outlook mixed

SEIA analysts project that Q1 of next year will see over 1G in installed capacity for utilities, and predict that this market will hold on to its reign as the segment with the largest amount of installations through 2016. However, the rate of these utilities inking solar contracts has slowed, and “led a number of top utility-scale project developers to seek opportunities in emerging markets outside the U.S.,” the report said.

Non-residential projects struggle

In comparison, projects other than home solar have lagged. With a smaller number of installations, they’re anticipated to have a “flat” 2013, according to the report. The majority of the 28 states monitored by SEIA did not experience quarterly growth.

One bright spot was trend towards smaller non-residential systems. Average sizes fell below 100kW — a first since 2011. “The market potential for small commercial installations is enormous, so this trend line may reflect strength in a market segment that could become vital to the non-residential market’s recovery,” the report noted.

However, if wholesale distributed generation had been included in the report’s definition of non-residential projects, the installation numbers would have been more positive, according to the report.

“Although 2013 has been a slow year for non-residential projects, it has been a banner year for wholesale distributed generation, thanks largely to a booming market for 1 MW to 5 MW projects in North Carolina,” the report said.